AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6230 as US Dollar tumbles, upside remains capped

• The Aussie rebounded by roughly 0.67%, lifting the pair toward 0.6245 but still under last week's negative outlook.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets firm up after softer United States Personal Spending data.
• President Donald Trump reiterates he will double China tariffs to 20%.
• Tariff stalemate extends to Mexico and Canada, with no room left for negotiation according to Trump.

AUD/USD gains sharply to near 0.6230 as the US Dollar (USD) faces strong selling pressure. Fed dovish bets have escalated following a decline in United States (US) Personal Spending for January. However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) could again face selling pressure if President Donald Trump proceeds with additional tariffs on key trading partners, including China, Mexico, and Canada.

Daily digest market movers: Traders eye Trump's new tariff pledges and RBA policy signals

• President Trump announced an intention to lift tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, up from the currently planned 10%. He also said there is "no room left for a deal" on duties affecting Mexico and Canada, intensifying trade uncertainty across currency markets.
• Regarding the Fed policy, the probability of a Fed rate cut at June's meeting has risen to 74%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, triggered by a downbeat US Personal Spending report. Markets interpret the data as a sign that the Fed may soften its policy stance sooner.
• On the local front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in February and signaled a measured approach going forward. Investors await the RBA minutes due on Tuesday for hints of further easing measures as inflation remains a priority.
• While the US Dollar has weakened amid Fed cut speculation, President Trump's decision to double China tariffs stirs caution. The Aussie, sensitive to Chinese demand, could rapidly drop if Beijing retaliates or if other trading partners see increased barriers.
• On Monday, Trump clarified he has "not talked about suspending military aid to Ukraine," yet tensions emerged after Ukrainian officials rejected a prior "rare earth deal."
• Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) supportive stance might buffer some risk for China, but any slowdown there still undermines Australia's commodity-driven economy.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Pair halts losing streak but remains vulnerable below key barriers

The AUD/USD pair rose by about 0.67% to the mid-0.6200 region, temporarily reversing its downward momentum from last week. While the Aussie stopped the bleeding on account of a softer US Dollar, the outlook stays bearish after multiple sessions of losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits in a lower band, although it is rising sharply and suggests some buyer interest returning. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows red bars, indicating lackluster upside strength. Key resistance stands near the 0.6300-0.6330 handle, with further hurdles around recent swing highs. A renewed tariff threat or weaker Chinese demand could easily cap gains and trigger a retest of last week's lows.