Dow Jones Industrial Average whipsaws as investors grow antsy

• The Dow Jones tested fresh lows on Tuesday, but remained stuck near 43,500.
• Investor confidence was dealt a blow after consumer confidence slipped further.
• Signs of a widespread economic slowdown are growing, inflation figures still loom ahead.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) knocked slightly lower on Tuesday, dipping to a fresh multi-week low of 43,285. Investor sentiment recovered enough to push the Dow Jones back into the day's opening bids near 43,500. Still, confidence remains shaky as signs of a deeper-than-expected economic slowdown encroach around the edges of the data.

US Conference Board consumer confidence survey results came in well below expectations on Tuesday, falling for a third straight month. The CB consumer sentiment index fell to 98.3 in February, far below the median forecast of 102.3, and is the largest single-month decline since Q3 2021. Consumers saw an overall improvement in current business conditions, but consumer expectations for future business conditions, income potential, and employment prospects declined.

Trade policy constraints remain a key concern for markets after US President Donald Trump reiterated his insistence that stiff tariff packages on goods imported from Mexico and Canada will be proceeding next week, as well as a wide swath of reciprocal tariffs on other US trading partners that include additional tariffs to offset other countries' VAT and digital services taxes on their consumers. Investors still believe President Trump will continue to kick the can down the road and find excuses to pivot away from his tariffs in the eleventh hour. Still, the overarching threat of imposing steep importation taxes on US consumers already grappling with unsteady inflation factors bodes poorly for overall investor confidence.

Dow Jones news

Despite some shaky investor sentiment on Tuesday, the Dow Jones was tilted into the bullish side overall on the day. More of the index's listed securities were in the green than not, and the worst-performing stock was Goldman Sachs (GS), which declined around 2% and fell to $613 per share. The Dow Jones' weighting average means every dollar shed from a security's headline price contributes to a 6.15-point decline.

On the high side, Home Depot (HD) gained ground on Tuesday, rising around 4% and climbing to about $398 per share despite a gloomy homebuilding outlook.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones is at risk of getting caught in another congestion pattern. The major equity index has been stuck below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 43,908 for three trading sessions in a row, and bidders are running out of time to stage a fresh recovery to record highs above 45,000. As technical pressure gather on the Dow Jones chart, a fresh backslide to the 200-day EMA rising into the 42,000 handle is looking more likely.

Dow Jones daily chart