Aluminium rises after EU agrees to ban on Russian imports - ING

LME aluminium prices rose above $2,700/t briefly yesterday, for the first time in a month. This followed reports the EU agreed on a sixteenth package of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on primary aluminium imports. Prices later gave up the gains, ING's commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

More Russian metal has been shipped to China

"The package is expected to be adopted by EU foreign ministers on Monday to mark the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This comes as the US conducts talks with Russia on a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. The US has signalled that sanctions relief could be part of an agreement."

"Any impact is likely to be limited. Although the EU continues to import Russian aluminium, volumes have fallen, with European buyers self-sanctioning. The gap left by Russian supplies has mostly been filled by imports from the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia, and this trend is likely to continue. Meanwhile, more Russian metal has been shipped to China, the world's biggest aluminium consumer."

"The US and the UK banned the import of metals produced in Russia in 2024. The EU has so far banned aluminium products, including wire, tube, pipe and foil, which account for less than 15% of EU imports. Russia is the world's largest aluminium producer outside China, accounting for about 5% of global aluminium production."