Gold: Heads I win, tails you lose - TDS

For as long as this set-up in gold persists, you have been better served by throwing caution to the wind, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. 

CTAs remain effectively 'max long' in Gold

"This extremely positive set-up for Gold is underscored by currency depreciation pressures in Asia, which are acute enough to catalyze buying activity in non-USD denominated assets. Conversely, recent macro fund liquidations have refilled their warchest to deploy in Gold markets when global macro price action is favorable." 

"CTAs remain effectively 'max long', but won't liquidate in any reasonable scenario for prices, given the first threshold that can catalyze marginal liquidations lies south of $2800/oz." 

"This dynamic is ultimately fueling a bubble in positioning, by keeping macro funds from stopping out on adverse global macro price action, which ultimately drives Gold's outperformance relative to Treasuries."