CAD extends rebound through resistance at 1.4250/60 - Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up only smalls on the day and is lagging most of its G10 peers in their recovery against the big dollar on the week but the push under 1.42 is quite impressive from my point of view, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. 

CAD improves on the day

"There is clearly a big relief trade supporting the CAD here as CAD shorts cover amid the temporary reprieve from tariffs. I still rather think the USD's significant yield advantage will limit how far the CAD can recover in the short run. However, the apparent delay to tariff implementation perhaps means that the Bank of Canada will not feel the urgent need to ease policy again at the March meeting." 

"Pricing for a 25bps cut on March sits at 13-14bps currently. USD/CAD's estimated fair value is 1.4299 currently. Oil prices have firmed after US Treasury Sec. Bessent commented that the US is committed to limiting Iranian oil exports to 100k/bpd (significantly below recent exports which have been around 1.5mn bpd)." 

"The USD's soft end to the week after last week's significant net decline plus the push under firm support at 1.4250/60 suggests the CAD's technical condition is improving, giving spot a shot at extending losses to the 1.40/1.41 range. But let's not get too carried away just yet. Spot is trading off the intraday low and short-term price signals suggest the USD slide may have stalled for now, at least. USD rebounds have to remain capped in the mid/upper 1.42s if the CAD is to have a chance at pushing higher in the next few weeks."