Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers to near $30.50 as Trump's tariff threats keep outlook intact

• Silver price bounces back to near $30.50 as its outlook remains firm on Donald Trump's tariff fears.
• Donald Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on North American peers and 100% on BRICS.
• Investors await the US PCE inflation data for December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers a majority of intraday losses and rebounds to near $30.50 in Friday's European session. The white metal bounces back strongly as its outlook remains firm amid fears that United States (US) President Donald Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday for allowing illegal immigrants and the deadly opioid fentanyl enter into the economy. Such a scenario could lead to a trade war, which heightens geopolitical uncertainty, which is favorable for precious metals, like Silver.

Donald Trump has also threatened to implement 100% tariffs on the BRICS for attempting to create a new currency to diminish their reliance on the US Dollar. On his social media platform, Truth Social, on Thursday, Trump said, "There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade or anywhere else, and any Country that tries should say hello to Tariffs and goodbye to America."

Meanwhile, the US Dollar's (USD) appeal has also increased on Trump's tariff threats but is trading subduedly in European trading hours ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists estimate the core PCE inflation to have risen by 0.2% against 0.1% growth seen in November on month-on-month, with annual figures growing steadily by 2.8%.

Signs of persistent inflationary pressures would boost market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for a lengthy period. On Wednesday, the Fed left its key borrowing rates steady at 4.25%- 4.50% and guided that the central bank will remain in the waiting mode until it sees real progress in inflation or some weakness in the labor market.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price strengthens on a decisive break above the upward-sloping trendline around $30.85, which is plotted from the 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe. The near-term outlook of the white metal remains firm as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $30.57.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI manages to hold above 60.00.

Looking down, the January 27 low of $29.70 will act as a key support zone for the Silver price. On the upside, the December 12 high of $32.33 will act as key resistance.

Silver daily chart