Aluminum climbs as EU readies ban on Russian imports - ING

Aluminum rose in yesterday's trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc. The proposal calls for an import quota for a year before the complete ban comes into effect. The plan would allow European buyers to import 275,000 metric tons of the Russian metal under a quota system for one year before a full ban comes into effect, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

China is importing half of its Aluminum imports from Russia

"Although the EU continues to import Russian Aluminum, volumes have fallen over the past two years. The EU imported more than 320kt of unwrought Aluminum from Russia in the first 11 months of 2024, accounting for around 6% of total imports, a relatively small fraction of the global Aluminum market. This is down from 11% in 2023 and 19% in 2022."

"The gap left by Russian supplies has mostly been filled by imports from the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia and this trend is likely to continue. The US and the UK banned the import of metals produced in Russia in 2024. The EU has so far banned Aluminum products, including wire, tube, pipe and foil, which account for less than 15% of EU imports."

"Meanwhile, Russia has steadily increased sales to Asian consumers over the last three years, particularly China. China is now importing half of its Aluminum imports from Russia. We expect this trend to continue in 2025."