EUR/CAD Price Forecast: The first upside barrier emerges near 1.5100, BoC rate decision in focus

• EUR/CAD edges higher to around 1.5025 in Wednesday's early European session. 
• The cross keeps the positive outlook above the 100-day EMA with a bullish RSI indicator. 
• The immediate resistance level emerges at the 1.5095-1.5100 region; the first downside target is seen at 1.4936. 

The EUR/CAD cross trades in positive territory around 1.5025 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will likely cut its key benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its January meeting on Wednesday. 

The rising bets of BoC rate cut bets and the concerns about tariff policies from US President Donald Trump could weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the Euro (EUR) in the near term. Trump said last week that he will impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico from February 1.

Technically, the bullish outlook of EUR/CAD remains intact as the cross holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 59.50. This indicates that further upside looks favorable. 

The first upside barrier for the cross is in the 1.5095-1.5100 zone, representing the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and psychological level. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 1.5130, the high of January 27. A decisive break above this level will see a rally to 1.5172, the high of November 1, 2024. 

On the other hand, the low of January 23 at 1.4936 acts as an initial support level for EUR/CAD. The crucial contention level to watch is 1.4905, the 100-day EMA. The additional downside filter is located at 1.4760, the low of January 2.  

EUR/CAD daily chart