NZD/USD Price Analysis: mild uptick challenges short-term resistance

• NZD/USD rises settling near 0.5615 as it flirts with the 20-day SMA.
• RSI jumps to 42, moving sharply upward yet still anchored in negative territory.
• MACD histogram prints decreasing green bars, highlighting a tempered recovery outlook.

The NZD/USD pair added a modest 0.30% on Wednesday, edging up to 0.5615 after extending gains beyond its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This marginal push above the moving average could be the catalyst bulls have been waiting for, provided it holds steady in the coming sessions. Sentiment has shown signs of improving from oversold levels, although the market tone remains cautious overall.

Technical readings suggest that momentum is beginning to shift. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 42, indicating a hopeful uptick, it remains positioned in negative territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is producing fewer green bars, signaling that, although buyers are gradually stepping in, the pair's rebound remains fragile.

If NZD/USD can solidify its stance above the 20-day SMA near 0.5600, traders may eye further upside toward the 0.5650 resistance zone, with a move beyond this level potentially opening the door to 0.5700. Conversely, a drop back under 0.5580 would undermine the recent bounce and leave the pair vulnerable to retesting the 0.5550 handle or lower.

NZD/USD daily chart