Oil: Uncertainty over how oil supplies evolve in the months ahead - ING

Oil prices fell yesterday with ICE Brent down 1.35% and settling below US$80/bbl. Reports of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas would have supported this move. This is the first daily decline since the US announced stricter sanctions against the Russian energy sector. It is still unclear what the impact of these sanctions will be on Oil flows, ING's commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Oil prices fall to settle below US$80/bbl

"However, buyers of Russian oil have been looking at alternatives, in case these sanctions turn out to be disruptive. Any significant impact, however, is likely to be short-lived with Russia eventually finding ways to circumvent these latest sanctions. The uncertainty over the impact means that oil prices will likely be better supported than initially expected through the first quarter of the year."

"Oil prices are trading firmer in early morning trading in Asia today after API numbers showed that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected over the last week. US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6m barrels. However, this is where the support ended in the release. Cushing crude oil stocks increased by 600k barrels, although inventories are still historically low."

"The EIA yesterday released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, where it marginally increased its US crude oil production estimate for 2025 from 13.52m b/d to 13.55m b/d, growing by around 340k b/d year-on-year. The EIA also released its first production estimates for 2026 and expects US crude output to grow by just 70k b/d YoY to 13.62m b/d."