USD/CAD weakens below 1.4400 on upbeat Canadian PMI, higher crude oil prices

• USD/CAD trades in negative territory around 1.4395 in Friday's Asian session. 
• The upbeat Canadian PMI and rising crude oil prices support the Loonie. 
• A slow and cautious approach of the Fed might help limit the pair's losses. 

The USD/CAD pair softens to near 1.4395 on Friday during the Asian trading hours. The rise in crude oil prices provides some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the Greenback. 

Data released by S&P Global on Thursday revealed that the Canadian Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in December from 52.0 in November, its highest level since February 2023. This reading was better than the estimation of 51.9. 

Meanwhile, higher crude oil prices contribute to the CAD's upside. It's worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.

However, the potential threat of US tariffs and domestic political uncertainty might drag the Loonie lower and act as a tailwind for USD/CAD. President-elect Donald Trump said in December that he planned to impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico unless the countries reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 4.50%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.50% in the December meeting. Nonetheless, the signal of slower Fed rate cuts this year might lift the Greenback in the near term. In the final monetary policy meeting on December 18, Fed officials pencilled in only two rate cuts in 2025, down from the four it had forecast in September.

Traders will take more cues from the slew of US economic data that will give a clear picture of the US economy and a certain conviction about the US Fed rate cut this year. The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December will be the highlight later on Friday.