Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps to near $2,650 as investors consider Trump's impact on global economy

• Gold price gains to near $2,650 as investors expect heightened global uncertainty under Trump's administration.
• US Trump is expected to raise import tariffs and lower taxes after joining the White House.
• The US Dollar refreshes two-year higher on lower Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending Dec 27.

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends intraday gains to near $2,650 in the opening North American session on Thursday after the New Year holiday. The precious metal strengthens as its safe-haven appeal as improved, with investors focusing on President-elect Donald Trump taking administration on January 20.

Expected incoming policies from Trump, such as higher import tariffs and lower taxes, will be beneficiaries of the Gold. Higher import tariffs would lead to a potential global trade war and lower taxes will boost inflationary pressures in the United States (US). Gold tends to perform better amid economic uncertainty as a safe-haven bet and higher price pressures, given that investors use the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.

10-year US Treasury yields decline to near 4.54% at the start of the year as the rally stalls. Generally, lower yields on interest-bearing assets result in lower opportunity costs for non-yielding assets, such as Gold, and make them an attractive bet.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) also gains sharply as investors expect high inflation under Trump's administration will force the Federal reserve (Fed) to adopt a moderate policy-easing approach. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, posts a fresh two-year high at 108.90.

On the economic front, fewer US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 27 have also strengthened the US Dollar. The Department of Labour reported that individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were 211K, lower than estimates of 222K and the former release of 220K.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle chart formation on a daily timeframe, which exhibits a sharp volatility contraction. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $2,630 broadly overlaps Gold's price, suggesting a sideways trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

Looking up, the Gold price would strengthen after a decisive break above the December high of $2,726.00. On the contrary, bears would strengthen if the asset breaks below the November low around $2,537.00.

Gold daily chart