Dow Jones Industrial Average cools off as record rally takes a pause

• The Dow Jones eased down around 200 points on Tuesday.
• Despite an upbeat JOLTS print, equities have eased off their recent rally.
• A packed data docket awaits investors in the runup to Friday's NFP.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pared back recent gains again on Tuesday, declining 200 points despite a better-than-expected print in JOLTS Job Openings in October. ADP Employment Change labor preview figures are due on Wednesday, followed by another round of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) net jobs additions on Friday.

JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.744 million job vacancies in October, climbing slightly from September's revised 7.372 million and beating the expected 7.48 million. A tight US labor market has squeezed JOLTS figures into the low side, declining steadily from multi-year highs of around 12 million set in June of 2022.

ADP Employment Change numbers for November are slated for Wednesday and are expected to decline to 150K from the previous month's 233K. Friday's NFP net job additions are expected to rebound to 200K in November after October's 12K print on the back of temporary job losses attributed to hurricanes, among other things. The US Unemployment Rate is also expected to tick higher to 4.2% from 4.1% on Friday.

South Korea's conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol declared "emergency martial law" early Tuesday in a surprise move that rattled equities with exposure to South Korean markets. South Korea's President accused the country's opposition Democratic Party of sympathizing with North Korea and undermining South Korea's parliament with anti-state activities. 

President Yook Suk Yeol has been embroiled in a fierce battle with the opposition party, which is broadly favored to win the next election in 2027. South Korea's Democratic Party has been pushing for impeachment articles against top conservative officials in prosecutor positions after President Yoon Suk Yeol rejected calls for investigations into multiple government scandals perpetrated by the South Korean President's wife and several top officials within the conservative People Power Party.

Dow Jones news

Despite an overall dip in the headline index number, losses are spread around on Tuesday, softening the blow and keeping roughly a third of the Dow Jones' listed securities in the green. Honeywell (HON) trimmed its yearly earnings outlook after announcing a tech partnership with Canadian aviation manufacturer Bombardier. Honeywell fell 2.2%, declining below $225 per share after investors balked at the cash outlay as part of the Bombardier deal that will crimp earnings for the year.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones is paring back recent gains into record highs as bulls take a breather. The major equity index is easing back toward 44,500 after tapping a new all-time peak above 45,000 last week. Despite a near-term pivot into the downside shaping up, short positioning buildup hasn't paid off very well in 2024: November was the Dow Jones' best single-month performance in exactly a year, gaining 7.6% in just four weeks, and the Dow closed higher for all but of the last twelve consecutive months.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is rising into 43,200, providing an immediate technical floor along with the last swing low on daily candlesticks in the same region. Prices have outrun the 200-day EMA since November of last year, and the Dow Jones is up over 18% YTD.

Dow Jones daily chart