GBP/USD heads into a thin Friday on a quiet note

• GBP/USD is treading water near 1.2700 with a quiet Friday on the docket.
• Data is thin on both sides of the Atlantic to wrap up the trading week.
• BoE"s FSR is unlikely to move the needle on Friday, markets await next week's NFP.

GBP/USD saw a quiet Thursday session, trading on the thin side and holding on near the 1.2700 handle. US markets were dark on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and Friday will also see shortened US trading hours, keeping the back half of the trading week on the low end of volumes overall.

The Bank of England's (BoE) latest Financial Stability Report will drop on markets early during Friday's upcoming US market session. The release is overwhelmingly unlikely to drive much momentum in Cable markets. However, traders should still be on the lookout for low-volume volatility spikes. With the US slated to have shortened trading hours on Friday, overall market liquidity will be even lower than usual, making it easier for outsized orders to shock bids.

Next week's economic data docket bodes just as poorly for the Pound Sterling. Very little data of note is slated for release next week on the UK side, while traders will be hunkering down to wait for next Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report, scheduled for December 6. Next week's NFP will take on renewed importance for traders now that watching for signs of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken a backseat as of late. However, a large move in either direction in NFP figures could jolt Treasury rates, sparking fresh fears of either too many or too few rate cuts heading into 2025.

GBP/USD price forecast

The GBP/USD trend is downward biased, though the British Pound has made some recovery. For buyers to regain control, they need to break above 1.2714, the November 20 high, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2818. If these levels are surpassed, moving towards 1.3000 will be challenging due to a recent 'death cross' formation between the 50-day and 100-day SMAs.

Sellers must close below 1.2600 for a bearish continuation, which would expose the November 26 low at 1.2506, followed by last week's low of 1.2486. Overall, while the GBP/USD has a slight short-term upside, significant downside risks persist.

GBP/USD daily chart