NZD/USD hovers around 0.5900, downside risk appears due to market caution

• NZD/USD depreciates as traders expect the Fed to adopt a cautious approach regarding a rate cut next month.
• The Fed remains on alert following the latest US inflation data, which highlighted an increase in consumer spending for October.
• The New Zealand Dollar may struggle as the US plans further AI chip sanctions against China.

The NZD/USD pair remains subdued near 0.5890 during early European trading hours. The pair's weakness can be attributed to the stronger US Dollar (USD), driven by a cautious market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) December interest rate decision. Trading volumes may remain light due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Wednesday's latest US inflation data indicated solid growth in consumer spending for October, but it also highlighted a stagnation in progress toward lowering inflation, keeping the Fed on alert. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.8%, slightly higher than the 2.7% recorded the previous month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 68.2% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, up from 59.4%, a day ago. Nonetheless, they anticipate the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its January and March meetings.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may face headwinds as the United States (US) plans to implement new measures next week aimed at restricting China's progress in artificial intelligence technology. Given New Zealand's strong trade relationship with China, any significant economic impacts on China could have ripple effects on Kiwi markets.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 50 basis point (bps) cut to its Official Cash Rate (OCR), bringing it down from 4.75% to 4.25% in November's policy meeting. During the post-meeting press conference, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr indicated that the bank's projections suggest another potential 50 bps cut in February 2025, contingent on economic activity. Orr also expressed confidence that domestic inflationary pressures will continue to subside.