NZD/USD posts modest gains to near 0.5900 amid weaker US Dollar

• NZD/USD trades with mild gains around 0.5900 in Thursday's early Asian session.
• The cautious stance from the Fed on further rate cuts might lift the US Dollar. 
• The speculations about a potential 10% tariff on Chinese goods could weigh on the Kiwi. 

The NZD/USD pair gains traction to around 0.5900 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The Greenback edges lower due to the month-end flows and some profit-taking for the US long weekend. The US markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.

However, the downside for the Greenback might be limited amid the expectation of a less aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The signal of stalled inflation progress hinted that the Fed might be cautious about further rate cuts. 

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.3% YoY in October, compared to a 2.1% increase in September, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% in the same period, up from 2.7% in September. Both figures came in line with the market consensus.

"This paves the way for a 25 basis point cut in December and then probably a pause. But the pause won't likely be due to inflation data, but because of uncertainties over Trump's tariffs. I think the Fed will grow cautious," noted Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.75% to 4.25% in the November meeting. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted during the press conference that the forecasts align with a potential 50 bps reduction in February 2025, contingent on economic activity. He further stated that domestic inflation pressures would continue to ease. In the meantime, the recent tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump could exert some selling pressure on the Kiwi as China has been the largest trading partner of New Zealand.