EUR/AUD Price Forecast: Outlook remains negative below 1.6300

• EUR/AUD softens to around 1.6285 in Monday's early European session.
• The cross maintains the negative outlook below the key 100-period EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out. 
• The initial support level emerges at 1.6264; the immediate resistance level is seen at 1.6317. 

The EUR/AUD cross weakens to near 1.6285 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gathers strength against the shared currency amid the hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock last week. 

The RBA reiterated that "the Board is not ruling anything in or out" and that there is "the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation." Traders brace for the RBA Meeting Minutes from its last board meeting for more clues on future rates, which are due on Tuesday. 

According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/AUD cross keeps the bearish vibe, with the price holding below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, suggesting the neutral momentum in the near term. 

The lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.6264 acts as an initial support level for the cross. The crucial contention level is seen in the 1.6205-1.6200 region, representing the psychological level and the low of November 12. The additional downside filter to watch is 1.6135, the low of October 18. 

On the bright side, the first upside barrier for EUR/AUD is located at 1.6317, the 100-period EMA. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 1.6337, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Any follow-through buying could see a rally to 1.6430, the low of November 5.  

EUR/AUD 4-hour chart