GBP/USD falters ahead of UK labor and wages data dump

• GBP/USD settled below 1.2900 on Monday as Sterling flows tighten up.
• UK wages and jobs figures are due during Tuesday's London market session.
• Key US CPI inflation data looms ahead in the midweek hump.

GBP/USD skidded back into familiar lows on Monday, squirting back below the 1.2900 handle as Cable traders brace for the latest round of UK wages and jobs data due early Tuesday. The US market session was a quiet affair, with markets tilting firmly into risk appetite but still bolstering the US Dollar into the high side.

The London market session will kick off Tuesday with a fresh print in UK Average Earnings for September and UK Employment Change for the rolling three-month period ended in October. UK Average Earnings are expected to tick up to 3.9% for the annualized three-month period ended in September, up slightly from the previous period's 3.8%. On net job additions, the UK is expected to shed around 50K jobs, down sharply from the previous period's net increase of 373K. The UK's Claimant Count Change is also expected to rise in October, forecast to increase to 30.5K MoM compared to the previous print of 27.9K.

The US markets were thin with many institutions dark for the Veteran's Day holiday, however US investors are expected to return to the fold during the midweek market session with a fresh update to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures. October's headline CPI is expected to accelerate to 2.6% YoY from the previous period's 2.4%, with core CPI for the same period forecast to hold steady at 3.3% YoY. Thursday will follow up with US Producer Price Index (PPI) business-level inflation, which is also expected to tick higher to 2.9% YoY in October from 2.8%.

GBP/USD price forecast

The GBP/USD daily chart shows the pair trading just above a critical support level, marked by the 200-day EMA at 1.2860. This key moving average has been providing support, and the current candle's proximity to this level suggests potential downside risk if the pair closes below it. The 50-day EMA, which sits around 1.3025, has been trending downward, indicating a bearish medium-term outlook. The price's position below this 50-day EMA also signals that bears maintain control, and any recovery toward this level could encounter strong resistance.

The MACD indicator below the chart supports the bearish bias, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating downward momentum. The histogram has turned slightly negative, reflecting a growing bearish sentiment. However, the MACD remains near the zero line, which suggests that momentum is not strongly established in either direction. If the histogram increases in size on the negative side, it would strengthen the bearish case and could lead to a deeper pullback.

In the near term, a decisive break below the 200-day EMA could trigger further losses, potentially opening the door toward the next support zone around 1.2750. On the other hand, if GBP/USD manages to hold above this key level and regains momentum, a bounce towards the 1.3000 mark and the 50-day EMA is possible. Overall, the pair appears vulnerable to downside risks, with bears likely eyeing a daily close below 1.2860 to confirm a more substantial bearish trend.

GBP/USD daily chart