Created
: 2024.11.07
2024.11.07 20:16
Not only was there a political bang in the US yesterday, but also in Germany late last night. After Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the so-called "Ampelkoalition" (a coalition between the Christian Democrats, the Social Democrats and the Greens) is now history, Commerzbank's FX Analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
"Will the lights go out in Berlin now that the coalition has broken up? Hardly likely. The most likely scenario is a minority government followed by new elections in March. But even then, forming a government will likely be difficult. The euro has not yet reacted to the events in Germany. This could still happen when trading starts in Europe, as political uncertainty in the largest country in the euro zone is certainly not positive news for the single currency."
"However, the consequences are likely to be limited. For a start, the political turmoil in Germany would have to lead to considerable negative economic consequences that have a significant impact on growth in the euro zone and thus influence the ECB's monetary policy to such an extent that it lowers the key interest rate more than expected. However, this is not to be expected (at least not at the moment)."
"The fact that the euro zone will only make sluggish economic progress in the coming months, due in part to weak growth in Germany, is likely to be already largely priced into the euro. As long as it is not clearly foreseeable that the euro zone will see lower trend growth in the future than previously expected, sustained losses in the euro are unjustified. As a result, the euro should only react briefly, if at all, to the news from Berlin, but should then quickly recover."
Created
: 2024.11.07
Last updated
: 2024.11.07
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy