Select Language

Australian Dollar falls ahead of US election results, Georgia exit polls tilt toward Trump

Breaking news

Australian Dollar falls ahead of US election results, Georgia exit polls tilt toward Trump

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.11.06 10:30
Australian Dollar falls ahead of US election results, Georgia exit polls tilt toward Trump

update 2024.11.06 10:30

  • The Australian Dollar depreciates as traders adopt caution ahead of the results of the US presidential election.
  • The Aussie Dollar could regain momentum as RBA Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed a hawkish stance on Tuesday.
  • Georgia exit polls indicate that Trump holds a 10% lead over Harris, estimated with less than 1% of votes counted.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as market anticipation builds ahead of the US presidential election outcome. Traders are also gearing up for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy announcement on Thursday.

The Aussie Dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, marking its eighth consecutive pause. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy given persistent inflation risks and a strong labor market.

Additionally, Australia's latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data indicated a positive shift in private sector activity in October. Growth in the services sector helped offset a continued decline in manufacturing.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates amid market caution ahead of US election results

  • Georgia, one of the early states with available exit polls, shows a tilt toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. With its 16 electoral votes, the initial data suggests Trump has roughly a 10% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although this estimate is based on less than 1% of the votes counted, as reported by The Washington Post. This early lead suggests momentum for Trump, but with only a small fraction of votes tallied, the final outcome in Georgia remains uncertain.
  • Polling data indicates a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding an edge. On Kalshi, Trump shows a strong 57% to 43% lead over Harris, while on Polymarket, the gap is slightly wider, with Trump at 60.7% and Harris at 39.5%. These figures reflect growing support for Trump as election day approaches, but the race remains competitive.
  • Attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets broadly anticipating a 25 basis point cut. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 96.4% probability that the Fed will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at its November meeting, reflecting strong market consensus for a modest cut this week.
  • The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index increased to 56.0 in October, up from 54.9 in September, exceeding the forecast of 53.8. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI registered at 55.0 in October, slightly below both the prior reading and the expected 55.3.
  • Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI improved to 51.0 in October from 50.6 in the previous reading, above the market consensus of 50.6. The Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in October versus 49.8 prior. Caixin China Services PMI also rose to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September.
  • The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October, up from a 0.1% increase in the prior month, marking the highest reading since July and preceding the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge climbed by 3.0%, compared to the previous 2.6% reading.
  • ANZ Australia Job Advertisements increased by 0.3% month-over-month in October, a notable slowdown from the upwardly revised 2.3% gain in September. Despite the weaker growth, this marks the second consecutive month of increases.
  • China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia's Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday. China expressed hopes that Australia will continue enhancing its business environment and ensure fair and equitable treatment for Chinese companies.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves below 0.6600, nine-day EMA

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6590 on Wednesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend. The pair has slipped below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling downward momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, further supporting a bearish outlook for the pair.

For the AUD/USD pair, immediate support lies near the three-month low at 0.6536. A break below this level could lead the pair toward the critical psychological support at 0.6500.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance at the nine-day EMA at 0.6603, with additional resistance at the 14-day EMA at 0.6620. A breakout above these levels could signal strengthening momentum, potentially targeting the key psychological level of 0.6700.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.79% 0.49% 0.96% 0.36% 0.75% 0.45% 0.67%
EUR -0.79%   -0.30% 0.15% -0.42% -0.05% -0.34% -0.12%
GBP -0.49% 0.30%   0.44% -0.13% 0.25% -0.07% 0.19%
JPY -0.96% -0.15% -0.44%   -0.58% -0.20% -0.50% -0.27%
CAD -0.36% 0.42% 0.13% 0.58%   0.38% 0.09% 0.31%
AUD -0.75% 0.05% -0.25% 0.20% -0.38%   -0.30% -0.06%
NZD -0.45% 0.34% 0.07% 0.50% -0.09% 0.30%   0.22%
CHF -0.67% 0.12% -0.19% 0.27% -0.31% 0.06% -0.22%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.


Date

Created

 : 2024.11.06

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.11.06

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair tumbles and eyes break of 90.00-92.00 range

The NZD/JPY pair has been on a downward trajectory for the past three days, shedding 0.27% on Friday's session to close near the 90.30 level.
New
update2024.11.23 06:57

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges above $31.00 as US yields fall

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar.
New
update2024.11.23 06:31

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair fell to lowest level since November, bears command

The NZD/USD pair extended its losses on Friday, declining by 0.54% to 0.5830, its lowest level since early November.
New
update2024.11.23 06:18

Canadian Dollar loses momentum on Friday

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) waffled into the midrange on Friday, testing into the low side but ultimately getting hamstrung as Canadian data comes in mixed and gets overshadowed by sentiment-bolstering US data prints.
New
update2024.11.23 05:47

Australian Dollar retreats as US Dollar gains momentum after S&P PMI data

The AUD/USD declined just below 0.6500 as the market is focused on the US Dollar's strength.
New
update2024.11.23 05:07

Gold price reaches two-week peak as US yields fall, geopolitical tensions rise

Gold price rallies to a new two-week high on Friday during the North American session as US Treasury bond yields drop.
New
update2024.11.23 04:55

Dow Jones Industrial Average soars another 350 points

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has snapped its recent soft patch, extending its midweek bullish pivot into a firm Friday performance.
New
update2024.11.23 03:56

US Dollar retraces from two-year high after PMI data, geopolitical uncertainty prevails

In Friday's session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined slightly after reaching a new two-year high amidst geopolitical instability.
New
update2024.11.23 03:08

Mexican Peso slumps, shrugging off solid data

The Mexican Peso retreats for the third straight day versus the US Dollar, although economic data suggests the country's economy grew in the third quarter while inflation edged lower.
New
update2024.11.23 02:37

A (local) peak in Gold is now imminent - TDS

The downturn in Gold prices underscored by sharp liquidations from macro funds lined up exceptionally well with historical patterns surrounding drawdowns associated with macro fund liquidations from extreme levels, averaging between 7-10% over the last decade, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
New
update2024.11.23 01:02

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel