Select Language

Mexican Peso tumbles as US election, judicial reform stir market uncertainty

Breaking news

Mexican Peso tumbles as US election, judicial reform stir market uncertainty

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.11.06 03:49
Mexican Peso tumbles as US election, judicial reform stir market uncertainty

update 2024.11.06 03:49

  • Mexican Peso depreciates against the US Dollar, as USD/MXN remains above 20.00 figure.
  • Mexican Supreme Court debates judiciary reform amid rising domestic political tensions.
  • US election in close race adds to Peso's depreciation as investors seek safe-haven assets.

The Mexican Peso depreciated to a new record low against the Greenback on Tuesday as the US presidential election got underway. The Mexican Supreme Court began discussing Judge Juan Luis González Alcántara Carranca's proposal to modify the controversial judiciary reform presented by the ruling party Morena. At the same time, US business activity slowed, though it remains robust. The USD/MXN trades at 20.28, up by 0.95%.

Mexico's economic docket is absent. Domestically speaking, investors focus on the Supreme Court decision amid an ongoing judicial crisis in the country.

Supreme Court Judge Juan Luis González Alcántara Carranca's proposal suggests that, "Contenders for the Supreme Court and other top courts would have to stand for election. But thousands of other judges, appointed based on years of training, would remain in their jobs," via The New York Times.

President Claudia Sheinbaum refrained from discussing the court's decision. During the same press conference, she responded to Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump about immigration, saying, "There will be a good relationship." Sheinbaum added, "There has been a 75% decrease in migrants arriving at the northern border."

Across the border, the US presidential election continues in a narrow race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former president Trump. Trump's campaign recognized that the election would likely not be called this afternoon, according to CNN, citing sources.

The US economic docket revealed that the Balance of Trade deficit widened, while business activity cooled slightly. S&P Global revealed that October's service activity dipped, while the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services PMI improved for the same period.

USD/MXN traders await the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision on November 6-7, in which the Fed is expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 bps. After that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference would be scrutinized by investors looking for cues on the Fed's policy path.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso on the backfoot on US election fears

  • The USD/MXN remains adrift from political turmoil in Mexico after the approval of the controversial judiciary reform.
  • Analysts see Mexico's inflation moderating in October, according to Reuters.
  • They project the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October at 4.73% above the prior month's 4.58% YoY. However, core CPI is expected to decrease for the 21 straight months to 3.85% from 3.91%.
  • Former US President Donald Trump's harsh rhetoric weighs on the Peso. If Trump wins, a strong US Dollar could weigh on the Mexican currency, which could depreciate sharply due to threats to impose 25% tariffs on all products.
  • The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed the US trade deficit widened in September to $-84.4 billion from a revised $-70.8 billion. Economists estimated the less widened deficit of $-84.1 billion.
  • The US S&P Global Services PMI was 55.0 in October, below the forecast of 55.3 and September's 55.2.
  • The ISM Services PMI for the same period expanded to 56, from 54.9 in September, exceeding estimates of a deceleration to 53.8.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on November 7.
  • Data from the Chicago Board of Trade, via the December fed funds rate futures contract, shows investors estimate 49 bps of Fed easing by the end of the year.

USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso trims some losses as USD/MXN drops below 20.20

The USD/MXN reached a new yearly peak of 20.35, yet the pair has retreated below 20.20 as recent polls showed Kamala Harris up in Nevada. Despite this, the uptrend remains intact, and a break above 20.35 could open the door to challenge the 20.50 figure ahead of September. 28, 2022, high at 20.57, and the August 2, 2022, peak at 20.82.

Conversely, if USD/MXN drops further, the first support would be the 20.00 figure. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the October 24 daily low of 19.74, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.66. Once those levels are surpassed, the next support would be the October 4 cycle low of 19.10.

Mexican Peso FAQs

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country's central bank's policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring - or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries - is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico's central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

 


Date

Created

 : 2024.11.06

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.11.06

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair tumbles and eyes break of 90.00-92.00 range

The NZD/JPY pair has been on a downward trajectory for the past three days, shedding 0.27% on Friday's session to close near the 90.30 level.
New
update2024.11.23 06:57

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges above $31.00 as US yields fall

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar.
New
update2024.11.23 06:31

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair fell to lowest level since November, bears command

The NZD/USD pair extended its losses on Friday, declining by 0.54% to 0.5830, its lowest level since early November.
New
update2024.11.23 06:18

Canadian Dollar loses momentum on Friday

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) waffled into the midrange on Friday, testing into the low side but ultimately getting hamstrung as Canadian data comes in mixed and gets overshadowed by sentiment-bolstering US data prints.
New
update2024.11.23 05:47

Australian Dollar retreats as US Dollar gains momentum after S&P PMI data

The AUD/USD declined just below 0.6500 as the market is focused on the US Dollar's strength.
New
update2024.11.23 05:07

Gold price reaches two-week peak as US yields fall, geopolitical tensions rise

Gold price rallies to a new two-week high on Friday during the North American session as US Treasury bond yields drop.
New
update2024.11.23 04:55

Dow Jones Industrial Average soars another 350 points

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has snapped its recent soft patch, extending its midweek bullish pivot into a firm Friday performance.
New
update2024.11.23 03:56

US Dollar retraces from two-year high after PMI data, geopolitical uncertainty prevails

In Friday's session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined slightly after reaching a new two-year high amidst geopolitical instability.
New
update2024.11.23 03:08

Mexican Peso slumps, shrugging off solid data

The Mexican Peso retreats for the third straight day versus the US Dollar, although economic data suggests the country's economy grew in the third quarter while inflation edged lower.
New
update2024.11.23 02:37

A (local) peak in Gold is now imminent - TDS

The downturn in Gold prices underscored by sharp liquidations from macro funds lined up exceptionally well with historical patterns surrounding drawdowns associated with macro fund liquidations from extreme levels, averaging between 7-10% over the last decade, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
New
update2024.11.23 01:02

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel