Created
: 2024.11.05
2024.11.05 17:35
With an exceptionally close US election upon us, plus the outcome likely to deliver a binary impact on currency markets, the FX options market is trading at a respectful level of volatility.
"Polls in the seven swing US states close around 03/0400 CET tomorrow morning and we would expect markets to be moving around that time. Given the run-up in the dollar in October, we think we need to see a Red Sweep for the dollar to push on much further. A Harris win would seem a benign outcome and prove a dollar negative - those three currencies: the euro, the Canadian and the Australian dollars could do well here."
"The more difficult outcome for the market would be Trump without the House of Representatives or a contested election. IMF analysis in its recent World Economic Outlook warned that the US economy could be 1% weaker than baseline in 2026 if Trump delivers on tariffs but could not offset it with tax cuts. For this reason, and given market positioning into the election, we think the dollar could come lower unless there is a Red Sweep."
"Ahead of the election, today's US data calendar has ISM services for October. This is expected to soften a little. And were it not for the election, we believe this week's Fed meeting would also prove dollar negative too."
Created
: 2024.11.05
Last updated
: 2024.11.05
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy