Select Language

US Dollar shrugs off poor nonfarm payrolls, but suffers from election polls - Commerzbank

Breaking news

US Dollar shrugs off poor nonfarm payrolls, but suffers from election polls - Commerzbank

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.11.04 20:35
US Dollar shrugs off poor nonfarm payrolls, but suffers from election polls - Commerzbank

update 2024.11.04 20:35

The labor market report on Friday had no lasting negative impact on the US dollar. The abysmally low number of new jobs created did not harm the dollar because (a) the unemployment rate did not surprise on the downside and (b) there were enough special effects to explain a downward deviation of the nonfarm payrolls figure, without the US labor market having to be assumed to be in freefall, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.

The key driver is the upcoming US election

"Depending on which of the announcements made by Donald Trump and his cronies are taken seriously, the US economy could soon look quite different if he wins the election. The key driver is therefore tomorrow's US election. The polls published over the weekend have probably shaken the certainty with which some market participants may have bet on Trump's victory. At least the greenback has weakened significantly with and since the start of trading in Asia."

"In my view, two polls are particularly noteworthy: one by the New York Times, which sees Kamala Harris ahead in North Carolina and Georgia, two states where most polls so far have seen Trump ahead, one, considered a high-quality survey, which sees Harris ahead in Iowa, a state that has so far been largely considered a 'solid red' by pollsters. Both surveys show that the supposedly small confidence bands, which suggest a high degree of accuracy in the surveys, may have been taken too seriously by those who believed that a Trump victory is all too likely."

"The Iowa poll mentioned above, for example, seems to be based primarily on the fact that particular care was taken to capture the voting behavior of female swing voters, the majority of whom are repelled by Trump's family policy. This raises the suspicion that most polls that backed the Trump trade could be subject to a systematic error. The Trump trade appears riskier and is only worthwhile if the risk premium is correspondingly higher, i.e. if the USD is cheaper."


Date

Created

 : 2024.11.04

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.11.04

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair tumbles and eyes break of 90.00-92.00 range

The NZD/JPY pair has been on a downward trajectory for the past three days, shedding 0.27% on Friday's session to close near the 90.30 level.
New
update2024.11.23 06:57

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges above $31.00 as US yields fall

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar.
New
update2024.11.23 06:31

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair fell to lowest level since November, bears command

The NZD/USD pair extended its losses on Friday, declining by 0.54% to 0.5830, its lowest level since early November.
New
update2024.11.23 06:18

Canadian Dollar loses momentum on Friday

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) waffled into the midrange on Friday, testing into the low side but ultimately getting hamstrung as Canadian data comes in mixed and gets overshadowed by sentiment-bolstering US data prints.
New
update2024.11.23 05:47

Australian Dollar retreats as US Dollar gains momentum after S&P PMI data

The AUD/USD declined just below 0.6500 as the market is focused on the US Dollar's strength.
New
update2024.11.23 05:07

Gold price reaches two-week peak as US yields fall, geopolitical tensions rise

Gold price rallies to a new two-week high on Friday during the North American session as US Treasury bond yields drop.
New
update2024.11.23 04:55

Dow Jones Industrial Average soars another 350 points

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has snapped its recent soft patch, extending its midweek bullish pivot into a firm Friday performance.
New
update2024.11.23 03:56

US Dollar retraces from two-year high after PMI data, geopolitical uncertainty prevails

In Friday's session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined slightly after reaching a new two-year high amidst geopolitical instability.
New
update2024.11.23 03:08

Mexican Peso slumps, shrugging off solid data

The Mexican Peso retreats for the third straight day versus the US Dollar, although economic data suggests the country's economy grew in the third quarter while inflation edged lower.
New
update2024.11.23 02:37

A (local) peak in Gold is now imminent - TDS

The downturn in Gold prices underscored by sharp liquidations from macro funds lined up exceptionally well with historical patterns surrounding drawdowns associated with macro fund liquidations from extreme levels, averaging between 7-10% over the last decade, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
New
update2024.11.23 01:02

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel