NZD/USD Price Analysis: Gives up majority of intraday gains

• NZD/USD fails to hold the Asian session's strength amid persistent weakness in the Kiwi dollar.
• The NZ Unemployment Rate is expected to have risen to 5% in the third quarter of this year.
• This week, investors await the US presidential elections and the Fed's policy decision.

The NZD/USD pair falls back sharply to near 0.5980 in European trading hours on Monday after a strong opening. The Kiwi pair retreats on persistent weakness in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) due to expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut its Official Cast Rate (OCR) again by 50 basis points (bps) on November 27.

On the economic front, investors await the Q3 Employment data, which will be published on Wednesday. Economists expect the Unemployment Rate to have increased to 5.0% from 4.6% in the previous sector. In the same period, the NZ laborforce is estimated to have declined by 0.4%, the similar pace at which it grew in the previous quarter. The Labor Cost Index is expected to have grown by 3.4% year-on-year, slower than 3.6% in the second quarter of this year. Weakening labor market conditions would prompt RBNZ dovish bets.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (US) remains under pressure as traders brace for the United States (US) presidential elections on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy meeting on Thursday. According to various national polls, there would be fierce competition between Republican candidate Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

On the monetary policy front, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates again. However, the rate cut size is expected to be 25 bps against 50 bps opted by the Fed in Septeber.

NZD/USD remains well-supported above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around 0.5960. The Fibo tool is plotted from the August 5 low at 0.5850 to the September 30 high at 0.6380.

Downward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6030, suggests that the near-term trend is bearish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates below 40.00, indicating that a strong bearish momentum is intact.

More downside is highly likely towards the round-level support of 0.5900 and the August 5 low at 0.5850 if the pair decisively breaks below the October 31 low of 0.5940.

On the flip side, a reversal move above 61.8% Fibo retracement near 0.6050 will drive the asset toward the round-level resistance of 0.6100 and the October 8 high of 0.6146.

NZD/USD daily chart