Created
: 2024.11.04
2024.11.04 11:55
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens after the release of the Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge data on Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% during Tuesday's policy meeting, as underlying inflation, reflected in the trimmed mean, remains high. This anticipated hawkish stance from the RBA continues to support the Aussie Dollar, bolstering the AUD/USD pair.
The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October, up from a 0.1% increase in the prior month, marking the highest reading since July and preceding the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge climbed by 3.0%, compared to the previous 2.6% reading.
The US Dollar (USD) weakens following Friday's release of weaker-than-expected US October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. However, uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election on November 5 could prompt safe-haven flows, which may support the Greenback.
Traders are also focusing on the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, with expectations of a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 99.6% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6600 on Monday. The daily chart signals a possible softening of the bearish bias as the pair tests the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level; a rise above 50 would reflect a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
On the resistance side, AUD/USD faces the nine-day EMA at 0.6602, with the next resistance at the 14-day EMA at 0.6625. A break above these levels could strengthen the pair, potentially targeting the psychological level of 0.6700.
In terms of support, AUD/USD may find immediate support at the three-month low of 0.6536. A break below this level could push the pair toward the key psychological level of 0.6500.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.54% | -0.46% | -0.23% | -0.13% | -0.67% | -0.29% | -0.30% | |
EUR | 0.54% | 0.04% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.17% | -0.16% | -0.16% | |
GBP | 0.46% | -0.04% | -0.39% | -0.03% | 0.14% | -0.19% | -0.20% | |
JPY | 0.23% | 0.10% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.22% | |
CAD | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.03% | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.18% | -0.17% | |
AUD | 0.67% | -0.17% | -0.14% | -0.10% | 0.33% | -0.33% | -0.33% | |
NZD | 0.29% | 0.16% | 0.19% | -0.13% | 0.18% | 0.33% | -0.01% | |
CHF | 0.30% | 0.16% | 0.20% | -0.22% | 0.17% | 0.33% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Created
: 2024.11.04
Last updated
: 2024.11.04
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