Select Language

Gold edges higher as geopolitical risks revive following Hezbollah attack in Israel

Breaking news

Gold edges higher as geopolitical risks revive following Hezbollah attack in Israel

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.11.01 20:39
Gold edges higher as geopolitical risks revive following Hezbollah attack in Israel

update 2024.11.01 20:39

  • Gold recovers after the steep sell-off on the previous day amid rising safe-haven flows. 
  • Hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East were dashed after Hezbollah launched a rocket attack, killing seven people in northern Israel. 
  • Gold could be impacted by the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday as it could change the outlook for interest rates. 

Gold (XAU/USD) edges a third of a percentage point higher on Friday, recovering from the tumble it suffered on the previous day. The precious metal is trading in the $2,750s, just under a key chart resistance level. 

Gold is rebounding on the back of a revival in safe-haven demand after hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East war were dashed by a Hezbollah rocket attack in northern Israel that killed seven people, making it the worst strike in months, according to the BBC. That, and the risk surrounding the US presidential election given how tight the race is, continue leavening demand for the yellow metal. 

Gold upside could be capped amid stronger US Dollar

Gold's recovery could meet fresh resistance, however, as risks remain to the precious metal's outlook. The US Dollar (USD) is rising on Friday, ending a week-long decline, and this is likely to present headwinds to Gold because it is mainly priced and traded in USD. 

The Dollar is rising as markets continue to scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) easing because of strong employment data. Although the number of job openings fell unexpectedly, strong private payrolls data and lower unemployment benefit claimants data this week, made up for the openings miss. All these may help reassure the Fed that the labor market is solid. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls data out on Friday, however, will be key in gauging the health of the labor market and the Fed's future interest rate decisions. It will also reveal the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. 

If markets radically revise their expectations regarding Fed policy - seeing more not less interest rate cuts on the horizon - Gold could gain a boost and reassert its established uptrend. 

Technical Analysis: Gold pulls back into former range

Gold has pulled back down into its former range between $2,708 and $2,758 after rolling over from its new all-time high of $2,790, established on Wednesday. 

Overall, the precious metal remains in a steady uptrend on all time frames (short, medium and long), which, given the technical principle that "the trend is your friend," tilts the odds in favor of more upside. 

XAU/USD 4-hour Chart

That said, the decline from Wednesday's peak has been steep, which could augur more downside to come. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator in the 4-hour chart is also showing a bearish dip in momentum accompanied by the recent sell-off, with RSI falling substantially below the 50 mark for the first time since October 10.

A deeper pullback would find support at $2,708, the floor of the range. The overall uptrend, however, might resume afterward. 

A break above the $2,790 high would probably lead to a move up to resistance at $2,800 (whole number and psychological number) followed by $2,850. 

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human's history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn't rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country's solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 


Date

Created

 : 2024.11.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.11.01

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

GBP/USD: GBP has stabilized just above 1.25 - Scotiabank

UK data reports today were roundly disappointing, weighing on the Pound Sterling (GBP).
New
update2024.11.22 21:47

EUR/JPY Price Prediction: November bear trend unfolds

EUR/JPY staircases down from its Halloween peak as it unfolds in a short-term downtrend during November.
New
update2024.11.22 21:43

EUR/USD: EUR slumps on weak PMI data - Scotibank

The Euro (EUR) plunged in response to poor macro data reports earlier.
New
update2024.11.22 21:42

USD/CAD: CAD softer but outperforms most peers - Scotiabank

USD/CAD got caught in the crossfire of the hefty US Dollar (USD) advance against the European currencies earlier, rising quickly from the mid/upper 1.39s to an intraday high near 1.4020.
New
update2024.11.22 21:39

USD surges on weak European data - Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week on a strong note. The DXY raced to a new, two-year high overnight in response to weak European data but has conceded a lot of those gains ahead of North American trading, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2024.11.22 21:34

Crude Oil tries to claim $70 as geopolitics supports price

Crude Oil price steadies on Friday and tries to claim the $70 level after surging over 4.5% so far this week, fueled by fresh escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are rushing to get the tactical upper hand ahead of possible resolution
New
update2024.11.22 21:14

The recovery rally in the Gold market is likely to take a breather - Commerzbank

The Gold price has also recovered more than half of its losses since the end of October and is once again trading at $2,700 per troy ounce, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
New
update2024.11.22 21:07

Swiss Gold exports reflect weak demand for Gold in Asia - Commerzbank

The Swiss Federal Customs Authority published data on Gold exports in October this week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.11.22 20:59

Concerns about supply disruptions cause oil prices to rise - Commerzbank

Oil prices have risen noticeably over the past few days. Brent climbed to $74.8 per barrel in the morning, gaining almost 5% since the beginning of the week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.11.22 20:56

USD/CNH: The major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach - UOB Group

The US Dollar (USD) could to rise to 7.2630; the major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach.
New
update2024.11.22 20:50

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel