Created
: 2024.10.30
2024.10.30 11:18
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday amid fears that authorities will intervene in the market to prop up the domestic currency. The uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction amid expectations that the loss of the parliamentary majority by Japan's ruling coalition could make it difficult for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten its monetary policy further. Furthermore, the upbeat market mood is seen as another factor that is acting as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY.
Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoJ decision on Thursday. Apart from this, investors this week will confront important US macro data - the Advance Q3 GDP print later today, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the 150.65 confluence - comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September downfall - was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. That said, this week's repeated failures to find acceptance or build on the momentum beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level warrants some caution. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains close to the overbought zone, making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for further gains.
Any subsequent slide below the 153.00 mark, however, is likely to find some support near the overnight swing low, around the 152.75 region, ahead of the 152.40 area, or the weekly through. Some follow-through selling could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 152.00 mark en route to the 151.45 support and the 151.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the 150.65 confluence resistance breakpoint, which should now act as a key pivotal point and a strong base for spot prices.
On the flip side, the 153.85-153.90 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong barrier. A sustained strength beyond, leading to a breakout through the 154.00 mark, could lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 154.35-154.40 supply zone, towards reclaiming the 155.00 psychological mark. Spot prices could eventually climb to test the late-July swing high, around the 155.20 region.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world's most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan's policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan's mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ's stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen's value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Created
: 2024.10.30
Last updated
: 2024.10.30
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