Select Language

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hesitates to break above 1.3900

Breaking news

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hesitates to break above 1.3900

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.10.29 19:33
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hesitates to break above 1.3900

update 2024.10.29 19:33

  • USD/CAD strives to climb above 1.3900 as the US Dollar clings to gains.
  • Investors await a slew of US macroeconomic data for fresh interest rate guidance.
  • The Canadian Dollar has been battered by weak Oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to extend its rally above the round-level resistance of 1.3900 in Tuesday's European session. The rally in the Loonie pair appears to have paused for a while, with investors focusing on a string of the United States (US) economic data to be released this week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, edges lower in European trading hours but is close to a fresh almost three-month high near 104.60.

This week, investors will pay close attention to the US labor market-related indicators such as JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment and the Nonfarm Payrolls, Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), and the flash Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to get insights about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) likely interest rate action in both policy meetings in November and December.

Meanwhile, the overall market mood appears to be very quiet, with investors remaining cautious about US presidential elections on November 5. Latest election polls have shown that the competition between Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump will be a tough call.

In the Canadian region, plunging Oil prices have dampened the Canadian Dollar's (CAD) appeal. It is worth noting that Canada is the leading exporter of Oil to the US and lower fund flows into the oil-exporting region weakens its domestic currency.

USD/CAD is swiftly approaching the upper end of a year-long consolidation range near 1.3980. The outlook of the Loonie pair remains firm as it trades above the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3690.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00, pointing to an activation in bullish momentum.

The Loonie asset could extend its upside towards the October 2022 high of nearly 1.3977 after breaking above Monday's high of 1.3910. The asset will enter unchartered territory if it breaks above the annual high.

On the flip side, a downside move could appear if the asset breaks below the October 22 low of 1.3810. This would expose the asset to the 20-day EMA near 1.3770 and the October 16 low of 1.3750.

USD/CAD daily chart

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

 


Date

Created

 : 2024.10.29

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.10.29

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Mexican Peso plunges to new yearly low amid strong US Dollar

The Mexican Peso depreciated sharply against the Greenback on Friday and recorded new yearly highs of 20.29, above the former 20.22 peak late in the North American session, set to print weekly losses of over 1.50%.
New
update2024.11.02 07:31

Australian Dollar declines after high-tier US data, Chinese worries

.
New
update2024.11.02 06:40

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Mixed technical outlook with sideways movement

Friday's trading saw the NZD/JPY pair continue its sideways movement of the past sessions.
New
update2024.11.02 05:49

Forecasting the upcoming week: US Presidential Elections overshadows Fed's decision

This past week, the US Dollar consolidated at around familiar levels, though it is set to snap four consecutive weeks of gains ahead of a busy schedule.
New
update2024.11.02 05:32

Dow Jones Industrial Average surges on soft US NFP data, Fed easing hopes rise

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posted solid gains of close to almost 300 points or 0.71% on Friday, on softer-than-expected economic data, reinforcing investors' hypothesis of further easing by the Federal Reserve.
New
update2024.11.02 04:04

US Dollar rebounds after NFPs and ISM PMIs

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, rebounded intraday despite the weak jobs data as annual wage inflation rose to 4%, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated.
New
update2024.11.02 04:00

Canadian Dollar mixed after US NFPs, ISM PMIs

The USD/CAD currency pair saw a mild decline in Friday's session, reaching a low of 1.3920.
New
update2024.11.02 02:10

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Climbs post weak US jobs report, eyes 100-day SMA

The Pound Sterling erased some of its Thursday's losses against the Greenback and rose 0.56% above its opening price after a dismal US jobs report reassured investors the Federal Reserve would continue to ease policy.
New
update2024.11.01 23:56

RBNZ: A high bar for a 75bps cut - Standard Chartered

We think the bar is high for a 75bps OCR cut given the prevailing economic backdrop.
New
update2024.11.01 23:56

EUR/CAD Price Prediction: Decisively breaks out of top of pattern

EUR/CAD rallies and pierces decisively above the slanting roof of the price pattern it had been trading in since the beginning of August.
New
update2024.11.01 23:40

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel