Created
: 2024.10.29
2024.10.29 17:39
Privately held net marketable borrowing for Q4-2024 was revised down by USD19bn to USD546bn, largely due to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance partially offset by lower net cash flows, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
"However, US Treasury plans to borrow a net USD823bn in Q1-2025, which is on the high side of expectation; part of this estimated borrowing is for building up cash balance though, from an estimated USD700bn at end-2024 to an estimated USD850bn at end Q1-2025."
"Issuances are distorted by the debt ceiling deadline. Estimated end-2024 cash balance is consistent with the expiration of the debt limit suspension on 1 January 2025; the increase in estimated cash balance towards end Q1-2025 assumes enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase. Netting out the expected change in cash balance, the borrowing needs would be USD673bn."
"In addition, USD75bn of the borrowing in Q1-2025 is due to SOMA redemption; should QT end earlier, there could be a mild downward revision to net borrowings. That all being said, uncertainties abound. Meanwhile, details on individual auctions are to be announced on Wednesday."
Created
: 2024.10.29
Last updated
: 2024.10.29
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