GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bears have the upper hand while below 1.3000 mark

• GBP/USD meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and seems vulnerable to sliding further.
• Bets for smaller Fed rate cuts revive the USD demand and exert pressure on the pair.
• The technical setup favors bears and supports prospects for a further depreciating move.

The GBP/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's good two-way price move and slides closer to mid-1.2900s during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices, however, hold above the lowest level since August 16 touched last week and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics. 

Bets for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) assist the USD in stalling its overnight pullback from a three-month peak and drag the GBP/USD pair lower. Apart from this, rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in November and December suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. 

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 1.3000 psychological mark and a breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) validate the near-term negative outlook. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. Hence, a subsequent slide back towards the 1.2900 mark, or the monthly swing low, looks like a distinct possibility. 

Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for an extension of a downtrend from the 1.3435 region, or the highest level since February 2022 touched last month. The GBP/USD pair might then aim to test the very important 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 1.2800 round-figure mark, with some intermediate support near the 1.2860 region.

On the flip side, the 1.3000 mark now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong barrier, above which spot prices could climb to the 1.3050 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering move and lift the GBP/USD pair beyond the 1.3100 round figure, towards the 1.3115-1.3120 resistance zone. Some follow-through buying will negate the negative outlook and shift the bias in favor of bulls.

GBP/USD daily chart