Select Language

USD/CAD hesitates at 1.3900 with downside attempts limited

Breaking news

USD/CAD hesitates at 1.3900 with downside attempts limited

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.10.28 21:17
USD/CAD hesitates at 1.3900 with downside attempts limited

update 2024.10.28 21:17

  • The US Dollar stalls below 1.3900 with the upside trend intact.
  • Investors are trimming USD longs ahead of key US data releases.
  • Weak Canadian data and lower Oil prices are limiting CAD's recovery.

The US Dollar is wavering below the 1.3900 level on Monday's European morning session. A somewhat softer US Dollar is weighing on the pair, although the lower Oil prices are keeping Cad recovery attempts limited.

The Dollar is witnessing some profit-taking on Monday, as the market readies for a batch of first-tier US indicators, which will determine the size of next week's Fed rate cut.

The Q3 US GDP is expected to highlight the US exceptionality, with a steady 3% yearly growth in the context of a global economic slowdown. In this context, market speculation of a Trump victory in the November 5 elections are keeping underpinning the US Dollar.

Lower Oil prices and weak data will weigh on the CAD

On the other hand, crude prices, Canada's main export have depreciated more than $4 from Friday's close on easing concerns about a regional war in the Middle East. This is likely to put a lid on the Canadian Dollar's recovery attempts.

Later today, BoC Governor Tim Macklem will meet the press and he is unlikely to support the CAD. The weak retail consumption and housing prices seen on Friday suggest that the bank will keep lowering interest rates to support economic growth.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

 


Date

Created

 : 2024.10.28

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.10.28

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair tumbles and eyes break of 90.00-92.00 range

The NZD/JPY pair has been on a downward trajectory for the past three days, shedding 0.27% on Friday's session to close near the 90.30 level.
New
update2024.11.23 06:57

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges above $31.00 as US yields fall

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar.
New
update2024.11.23 06:31

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair fell to lowest level since November, bears command

The NZD/USD pair extended its losses on Friday, declining by 0.54% to 0.5830, its lowest level since early November.
New
update2024.11.23 06:18

Canadian Dollar loses momentum on Friday

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) waffled into the midrange on Friday, testing into the low side but ultimately getting hamstrung as Canadian data comes in mixed and gets overshadowed by sentiment-bolstering US data prints.
New
update2024.11.23 05:47

Australian Dollar retreats as US Dollar gains momentum after S&P PMI data

The AUD/USD declined just below 0.6500 as the market is focused on the US Dollar's strength.
New
update2024.11.23 05:07

Gold price reaches two-week peak as US yields fall, geopolitical tensions rise

Gold price rallies to a new two-week high on Friday during the North American session as US Treasury bond yields drop.
New
update2024.11.23 04:55

Dow Jones Industrial Average soars another 350 points

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has snapped its recent soft patch, extending its midweek bullish pivot into a firm Friday performance.
New
update2024.11.23 03:56

US Dollar retraces from two-year high after PMI data, geopolitical uncertainty prevails

In Friday's session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined slightly after reaching a new two-year high amidst geopolitical instability.
New
update2024.11.23 03:08

Mexican Peso slumps, shrugging off solid data

The Mexican Peso retreats for the third straight day versus the US Dollar, although economic data suggests the country's economy grew in the third quarter while inflation edged lower.
New
update2024.11.23 02:37

A (local) peak in Gold is now imminent - TDS

The downturn in Gold prices underscored by sharp liquidations from macro funds lined up exceptionally well with historical patterns surrounding drawdowns associated with macro fund liquidations from extreme levels, averaging between 7-10% over the last decade, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
New
update2024.11.23 01:02

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel