EUR/USD rallies back over 1.08

• EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.0800 handle on Thursday.
• EU PMI figures came in mixed, giving Euro bulls just enough ammo.
• US Durable Goods Order and UoM Consumer Inflation Expectations in the barrel for Friday.

EUR/USD made a half-hearted recovery on Thursday, rebounding four-tenths of one percent and clawing back north of the 1.0800 handle. Despite a late-week bounce, Fiber remains steeply off of recent highs after declining over 4% top-to-bottom from late September's peak bids near 1.1200.

Pan-European HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures mixed early Thursday, with the EU Manufacturing PMI from October rising to a firmer 45.9 from the previous month's 45.0, eclipsing the expected 45.1. On the low side, October's EU Services PMI sank to 51.2, lagging below the previous month's 51.4 and missing the forecast uptick to 51.6.

The Euro's representation on this week's economic data docket is functionally wrapped up, with only low-tier data on the offer for Friday. Markets will have to contend with US Durable Goods Orders and an update to 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan (UoM). Headline US Durable Goods Orders in September are expected to contract a full 1.0% MoM, extending the recent downturn after August's flat-footed 0.0% print. October's UoM 5-year Consumer Expectations are expected to come in close to their previous print of 3.0%.

EUR/USD price forecast

The EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, having found support just above the 1.0750 level following a sharp decline from the highs near 1.1250 in mid-September. The pair has briefly rebounded from this key support, but remains below both the 50-day EMA (blue line) at 1.0968 and the 200-day EMA (black line) at 1.0896, indicating that the overall trend is still tilted to the downside. The moving averages are sloping downward, confirming bearish momentum in the near term. The recent bounce appears corrective, and unless the pair breaks above the 1.0900 area, sellers may look to reenter the market.

The MACD indicator shows a continued bearish bias, with the MACD line (blue) remaining below the signal line (orange), and the histogram firmly in negative territory. However, there are early signs of potential exhaustion in the selling pressure, as the histogram shows less pronounced red bars. This suggests that while the bears are still in control, the momentum is waning. A break above the 200-day EMA could signal a bullish recovery, but failure to clear that resistance would likely lead to further downside, with immediate support around the 1.0750 level and a potential test of the 1.0650 zone in case of extended selling pressure.

EUR/USD daily chart