EUR/USD backslides to a ten-week swing low ahead of ECB rate call

• EUR/USD withered further on Wednesday, sagging below 1.0900.
• ECB rate cut looms large around the corner, broadly expected to trim rates 25 bps.
• Final EU inflation figures are unlikely to move the needle on Thursday.

EUR/USD is in freefall, plummeting to multi-week lows as the Euro continues to crumple ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming rate call on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to trim interest rates by a quarter of a percent, or 25 bps.

All eyes will be on the ECB during Thursday's European market session. The ECB is widely expected to trim its Main Refinancing Operations Rate by 25 bps to 3.4% from 3.65%, with the ECB's Rate on Deposit Facility expected to take a matching 25 bps trim to 3.25% from 3.5%. With the ECB broadly expected to reduce rates in the face of a lopsided and cooling pan-EU economy, the Euro is running out of room quickly and can be expected to continue declining in the near-term.

With the ECB set to dominate Fiber flows heading into the back half of the trading week, all that's on the Greenback side of the data docket will be Thursday's US Retail Sales. Markets are expecting an improvement in US retailer volumes, forecasting a MoM uptick of 0.3% in September Retail Sales compared to August's 0.1% print.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD continues to tilt firmly into bearish momentum, slumping further below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 1.0900 handle. Extended short pressure could see the pair continue its current one-sided backslide to the 1.0800 region.

Fiber is down over 3% and falling fast after tumbling from recent highs above the 1.1200 handle set in late September. The pair has closed in the red for all but four of the last 15 consecutive trading days, and is poised for a third consecutive bearish week.

EUR/USD daily chart