Created
: 2024.10.15
2024.10.15 18:00
The euro is losing some ground ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank meeting and has now made a decisive break below 1.090. The rewidening in rate differentials with the USD is clearly prompting a shift in strategic EUR/USD positioning, and CFTC data showed net-longs have declined from 13.5% to 5.9% of open interest since early September, ING's FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.
"A more balanced positioning picture means EUR/USD can find some support in the dips. Incidentally, our models return a short-term fair value of around 1.093. USD might reconnect with lower oil and EUR/USD may edge back higher. Moving on, unless the ECB surprises with a hold or out-of-consensus guidance on Thursday, the direction for the pair will be set by US events in the next month or so."
"In the UK, jobs figures released this morning did not send any unidirectional message to the Bank of England. Unemployment ticked lower, but that is not a highly reliable indicator, while wage growth excluding bonuses slowed as expected. It's worth noting that the majority of sectors now have vacancy rates below pre-Covid averages when wage growth was around 3.5%, well below the current 5%."
"Our UK economist believes there is room for a further adjustment lower in wage growth that will ultimately allow the BoE to cut with more confidence. Tomorrow's UK CPI is the biggest event for sterling markets, and we see risks to the upside for EUR/GBP, which may retest the 0.8400 level."
Created
: 2024.10.15
Last updated
: 2024.10.15
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy