AUD/USD Price Forecast: Defends 50% Fibo., bulls seem non committed above 0.6800

• AUD/USD attracts some dip-buyers on Monday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.
• The technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciating move.
• Bearish traders need to wait for a break below the 50% Fibo. level before placing fresh bets.

The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note, snapping a two-day losing streak and stalling its recent pullback from the highest level since February 2023 touched last Monday. Spot prices currently trade just above the 0.6800 mark, up 0.20% for the day, though lack follow-through buying amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

The upbeat US monthly employment details released on Friday eased concerns about an economic slowdown, which, along with the optimism over China's stimulus, remains supportive of the risk-on mood. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie. Meanwhile, diminishing odds for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East assist the safe-haven buck to stand tall near a seven-week high. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices on Friday found support near the 0.6785 region, or the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September move-up. The subsequent move up favors bullish traders, though the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. In the meantime, the 0.6820 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level is likely to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the AUD/USD pair could accelerate the positive move towards the 0.6865-0.6870 region.

The latter near the 23.6% Fibo. level breakpoint, which if cleared will suggest that the corrective slide has run its course and prompt fresh buying. Spot prices might then aim to reclaim the 0.6900 round-figure mark and extend the momentum further towards the 0.6940-0.6945 region, or the year-to-date (YTD) peak touched last week. 

On the flip side, bearish traders need to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 50% Fibo. level, around the 0.6785 region, before placing fresh bets. The AUD/USD pair might then slide to the 61.8 % Fibo. level, around the 0.6745 region, before eventually dropping en route to sub-0.6700 levels, or the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

AUD/USD daily chart