Select Language

AUD/USD edges lower as US Dollar gains ground ahead of US key data

Breaking news

AUD/USD edges lower as US Dollar gains ground ahead of US key data

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.10.01 19:32
AUD/USD edges lower as US Dollar gains ground ahead of US key data

update 2024.10.01 19:32

  • AUD/USD edges lower to 0.6900 as the US Dollar gains firm footing.
  • The US Dollar bounces back as traders brace for a slew of US data.
  • Fed Powell pushed back large rate cut expectations for November.

The AUD/USD pair exhibits a subdued performance near the crucial support of 0.6900 in Tuesday's European session. The Aussie asset faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) bounces back strongly after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell pushed back market speculation for another interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) in November.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in November has eased to 39% from 58% a week ago.

S&P 500 futures have posted some losses in the European session, portraying a cautious market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, rises sharply to near 101.00. However, 10-year US Treasury yields tumble to near 3.75%.

Fed Powell commented on Monday at the National Association for Business Economics conference that policymakers don't feel for cutting interest rates quickly. In the latest Fed dot plot, officials forecasted the Federal Fund Rate heading to 4.4% by the year-end, indicating that there will be two quarter-to-a-percentage rate cuts in each of the two meetings remaining this year.

On the economic front, investors will focus on the United States (US) JOLTS Job Openings data for August and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

Meanwhile, the near-term appeal of the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains firm as Australia's economic outlook has been improved by China's massive liquidity stimulus. China's cabinet reported on Sunday that it will focus on solving outstanding economic problems and strive to complete annual economic and social development goals, Reuters reported. Being a proxy for China's economic growth, the Australian Dollar has benefitted from the stimulus announcement.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia's largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia's largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

 


Date

Created

 : 2024.10.01

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.10.01

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

USD/CAD Price Prediction: Countertrend rally might be stalling

USD/CAD suddenly reversed course in the midst of a strong downtrend and recovered on September 25.
New
update2024.10.01 22:17

Oil production in Libya to resume, US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico normalised - Commerzbank

One reason for the price weakness last week was the agreement reached by the conflict parties in Libya in the dispute over the leadership of the central bank, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.10.01 22:00

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Breaks lower, extending downtrend

EUR/GBP breaks lower after a brief pullback and continues its broader downtrend on Tuesday.
New
update2024.10.01 21:50

GBP/USD: GBP is stalled in low 1.34s - Scotiabank

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading lower on the session, tracking the broader tone of the US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2024.10.01 21:30

EUR/JPY pressured lower after cooling inflation weighs on single currency

EUR/JPY trades just over a third of a percent lower on Tuesday, in the 159.30s.
New
update2024.10.01 21:16

USD/CAD: Little changed on the day - Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the USD on the day, with spot holding close to Monday's close in the low 1.35 zone, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2024.10.01 21:00

Copper market significantly more oversupplied than expected in spring - Commerzbank

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) then followed with the publication of its forecasts for the copper market, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2024.10.01 20:40

USD recovery helped by supportive spreads - Scotiabank

Softer than expected US PCE data Friday undercut the US Dollar (USD) broadly at the start of the week but the USD has recovered this morning to trade higher overall against its major currency peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2024.10.01 20:39

USD/CHF Price Prediction: Rising up within range-bound consolidation

USD/CHF is rising up within its sideways range. It has reached a cluster of major Moving Averages which are providing firm resistance.
New
update2024.10.01 20:33

USD/JPY strives to reclaim 145.00 as traders pare Fed large rate cut bets

The USD/JPY pair gathers strength to extend its upside towards the crucial resistance of 145.00 in Tuesday's European session.
New
update2024.10.01 20:23

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel