Created
: 2024.10.01
2024.10.01 11:57
Gold price (XAU/USD) ended in the red for the second straight day on Monday amid optimism over China's stimulus and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's relatively hawkish remarks. This, in turn, prompted some follow-through profit-taking after the recent runup to the all-time peak touched last week, though the corrective pullback stalls near the $2,625-2,624 support zone. Nevertheless, the precious metal registered its best quarterly gains since early 2020 and seems poised to prolong its well-established uptrend.
The incoming weaker US economic data, along with a continued slowdown in inflation, should allow the Fed to cut interest rates further. This, along with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a broader conflict, should continue to benefit the safe-haven Gold price. This, along with expectations that China's stimulus measures will revive physical demand, assists the XAU/USD to attract some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and validates the near-term positive outlook ahead of the key US macro data.
From a technical perspective, the emergence of some buying near the $2,625-2,624 area reaffirms a support marked by a short-term ascending trend-channel resistance breakpoint and should act as a pivotal point. Some follow-through selling could drag the Gold price to the $2,600 mark, which if broken decisively could pave the way for some meaningful downside in the near term. The XAU/USD might then decline to the $2,560 intermediate support en route to the $2,535-2,530 region.
On the flip side, the $2,656-2,657 horizontal zone could offer some resistance ahead of the $2,672 area and the $2,685-2,686 region, or the record peak touched last week. This is closely followed by the $2,700 mark, which if conquered will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of a multi-month-old uptrend.
Gold has played a key role in human's history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn't rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country's solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Created
: 2024.10.01
Last updated
: 2024.10.01
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