EUR/USD spikes on immediate reaction to decline in Fed rate projections and 50 bps rate cut

• EUR/USD climbs on reaction to first Fed rate cut since March of 2020.
• Fed delivers a surprising 50 bps rate cut out of the gate.
• Fed dot plot eases lower in September, unemployment forecast ticks slightly higher.

EUR/USD soared into a fresh high for September after the Federal Reserve (Fed) surprised markets with a full 50 bps rate cut on Wednesday, pushing risk appetite into the high side and sending traders scrambling for the buy button. This marks the first Fed rate cut in over four years.

The Fed's dot plot of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections was also revised downward from the central bank's previous rate outlook. The median policy expectations from the Fed now see the Fed Funds rate at 4.4% by year-end 2024 and 3.4% by year-end 2025, down from 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively.

Going deeper into the Fed's notes, Fed policymakers now see US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.0% flat through 2024, down from the previous print of 2.1% in June. Fed officials also expected the US Unemployment Rate to settle around 4.4% by the end of 2024.

With the Fed finally catching up to market expectations that have been clamoring for rate cuts since the beginning of the year, global markets are pivoting to catch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference due at the bottom of the hour.

More to come...

EUR/USD 15-minute chart