EUR/USD catches a bullish break, but still trapped below 1.11

• EUR/USD rose on Wednesday as markets sell off Greenback.
• Markets have tilted into a risk-on position as bets of a Fed rate cut rise.
• US jobs data rules the market roost as investors look to NFP.

EUR/USD caught a bid on Wednesday, rebounding from a recent selloff and catching technical support from 1.1050. Despite the topside tilt to price action in the midweek, the pair remains hobbled below the 1.1100 handle. US jobs data will remain the key focus for markets this week in the run-up to Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

European Retail Sales remain the sole key data print from the EU side of the Pacific this week. Slated for early Thursday, pan-EU Retail Sales figures in July are expected to recover to a scant 0.1% YoY compared to the previous -0.3% contraction.

US JOLTS Job Openings in July missed the mark, adding 7.673 million available jobs compared to the forecast 8.1 million, compared to the previous month's revised 7.91 million. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) broadly expected to begin cutting interest rates on September 18, markets are tilting further into bets of a 50 bps cut to kick off the next rate cutting cycle. Rate markets are still pricing in 100 bps in total cuts by the end of 2024, but there's still a 57% chance of the Fed's September rate call being a slimmer 25 bps, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report looms large and represents the last round of key US labor data before the Fed's first rate trim. Friday's NFP print is widely expected to set the tone for market expectations regarding the depth of a Fed rate cut, with investors fully priced in on the start of a new rate-cutting cycle this month.

EUR/USD price forecast

Fiber has slumped back into near-term technical barriers, but bidders continue to come out of the woodwork to keep bids on balance even if they can't quite pull out a bullish recovery. EUR/USD popped into a 13-month high just above 1.1200 early last week, and a near-term pullback in Greenback flows sees bids scrambling to hold onto bullish chart paper.

The pair still trades well north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0845. Despite holding deep in the bull country, EUR/USD still faces a steepening bearish pullback as shorts congregate targets just above the 50-day EMA at 1.0956.

EUR/USD daily chart