Less OPEC oil in the short term - Commerzbank

The Reuters news agency yesterday published a first survey-based estimate of OPEC's August production: at 26.4 million barrels, the cartel's daily output was 340 thousand barrels lower than in July and thus the lowest level since January, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

August OPEC output is the lowest level since January

"The main reason for this was a significant drop in production in Libya of 290 thousand barrels per day. This reflects not only recent production losses, but also the shutdown of the Sharara oil field earlier in the month. Although Libya is an OPEC member, it is not bound by production targets. Quota-bound OPEC members are still producing 220 thousand barrels per day above target, according to the Reuters report, which is still largely due to Iraq."

"However, OPEC production could fall further in September: First, if Libyan oil production is cut for an extended period of time - on August 28, production was down to just under 600,000 barrels per day, and yesterday "force majeure" was reported for another oil field. And second, if Iraq actually implements the plans it confirmed during the OPEC Secretary General's visit and reduces its production to below 4 million barrels."