Dow Jones Industrial Average sets new record high before retreating on Friday

• The Dow Jones clipped a new record high bid to round out the trading week.
• US PCE inflation held steady in July, teasing investors without giving further hope.
• Coming up next week: US long weekend, PMI figures, and another NFP print.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tipped into a fresh record intraday high on Friday, echoing Monday's record-setting bidding action. However, investors pulled back from the brink after US inflation data kept rate cut bets on the rails.

US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) figures for July didn't deliver any notable surprises to round out the trading week. MoM US core PCE inflation held steady at 0.2%, as expected, but the YoY core PCE inflation figure held steady at 2.5% versus the anticipated move up to 2.6%. 

Rate markets are holding firmly to 30% odds of an initial double cut for 50 bps from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18, with the remaining 70% leaning into a single quarter-point cut. Overall, rate traders are pricing in 100 bps in total cuts in 2024, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

With PCE inflation data out of the way and not giving any warning signs, the way is paved to next week's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print, one of the last key pieces of economic data standing in the way of the Fed and rate-cut-hungry markets. Next week will also open on a quiet note, with US exchanges slated to remain shuttered for the Labor Day holiday. Some Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) releases are also scattered throughout the trading week.

Dow Jones news

It's been a mixed bag for the Dow Jones on Friday. Roughly half of the index's constituent securities are in the green for the day, and the DJIA eked out a fresh all-time intraday high of 41,497 before easing back to the day's opening bids. On the low end, Salesforce (CRM) backslid 1.8%, falling to $252.35 per share, while American Express (AXP) contracted a little over 1%, easing to $252.25.

On the high side, Intel (INTC) rallied over 9% at its peak, surging to its highest bids in nearly a month after rumors emerged the company is looking to pivot some of its core operations into more profitable sectors.

Dow Jones price forecast

Bullish momentum continues to strain against its tether, keeping the Dow Jones testing new record highs and keeping price action pinned deep in bull country. The index is trading well north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 38,513, and the nearest technical floor in place to catch a downside correction is parked at the 50-day EMA just above the 40,000 major price handle.

The Dow Jones has climbed over 8% from August's deep swing low to 38,382, touching new record highs twice in a single week. Despite closing in the green for three straight weeks, topside momentum is starting to wane, and bidders might want to watch out for a transitional period giving way to a fast drop that could gain speed as it kicks out near-term stops.

Dow Jones daily chart