Created
: 2024.08.27
2024.08.27 20:31
The US Dollar (USD) trades mixed on Tuesday's European session, halting the mild recovery seen on Monday, with only one pattern on the quote board to retain. The US Dollar is up against most major Asian currencies such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Korean Won (KRW). The risk-on mood seems to have returned to markets - with equities in the green across Asia, Europe, and US futures - as safe-haven flows retreat amid easing hostilities in the Middle East.
On the US economic calendar front, the Housing Price Index for June will be the main event to look at. the second element will be the Consumer Confidence Index for August. After the stellar Durable Goods Orders numbers from Monday, the Consumer Confidence Index should also head higher.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a substantial move lower last week, snapping several important support levels, as markets are pricing in aggressive Fed rate cuts by November. The recovery from Monday was already a good start, seeing that markets might have exaggerated their assumption on how big and how many cuts the Fed will actually perform. However, the DXY has not been able to recover that much, which means incoming data will become pivotal. Any strong data might trigger a tipping point that could fuel a rally in the DXY if markets start to price out cuts.
For a recovery, the DXY faces a long road ahead. First, 101.90 is the level to reclaim. A steep 2% uprising would be needed to get the index to 103.18 from the current 101.00. A very heavy resistance level near 104.00 not only holds a pivotal technical value, but it also bears the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the second heavyweight to cap price action.
On the downside, 100.62 (the low from December 28) tries to hold support, although it looks rather feeble. Should it break, the low from July 14, 2023, at 99.58 will be the ultimate level to look out for. Once that level gives way, early levels from 2023 are coming in near 97.73.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the 'de facto' currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world's reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed's 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed's weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Created
: 2024.08.27
Last updated
: 2024.08.27
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