NZD/USD appreciates to near 0.6150 due to improved risk sentiment

• NZD/USD maintains its position near the two-month high of 0.6178, marked on Wednesday.
• The US Dollar receives downward pressure from the lower Treasury yields.
• Retail Sales fell by 1.2% QoQ in Q2, swinging from a 0.4% growth in Q1.

NZD/USD retraces its recent gains toward two-month highs, trading around 0.6150 during the Asian session on Friday. This upside of the NZD/USD pair could be attributed to the tepid US Dollar (USD) amid improved risk sentiment. Traders assess the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the North American session.

The decline in the US Treasury yields put pressure on the Greenback. US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 101.30. 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons stand at 3.98% and 3.84%, respectively, at the time of writing.

However, the US Dollar received support from the mixed S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Thursday. The US Composite PMI dipped slightly to 54.1 in August, a four-month low, down from 54.3 in July, yet remained above market expectations of 53.5. This suggests that US business activity continues to expand, marking 19 straight months of growth.

The S&P Global US Services PMI inched up to 55.2 in August 2024, from 55.0 in July, defying expectations of a drop to 54.0. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.0 in August from 49.6 the previous month, falling short of market expectations of 49.6 and signaling the second consecutive contraction in US factory activity at the sharpest rate this year.

In New Zealand, Retail Sales fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, following a downward revision to 0.4% growth in the first quarter, and exceeding market expectations of a 1.0% decline. This drop in retail activity continues the downward trend observed over the past eight quarters.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has initiated its easing cycle, lowering its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 5.25% in August and signaling more cuts to come. Markets have fully priced in an additional 25 basis point cuts in October and November.