Created
: 2024.04.24
2024.04.24 20:07
Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats to $2,315 in Wednesday's European session while attempting to extend recovery above $2,320. The near-term appeal of the precious metal remains weak as safe-haven demand wanes amid easing Middle East tensions. Also, investors turn cautious for bullions ahead of the United States Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release and the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
The Q1 GDP and the underlying inflation will provide further cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates. The US core PCE Inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is estimated to have grown steadily by 0.3%, with annual figures softening to 2.6% from 2.8% recorded for February. The Gold price could face a sharp sell-off if the underlying inflation data comes in hotter than expected.
US inflation indicators such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) and wage growth have remained high in the first quarter. Further signs of persisting price pressures would allow the Fed to continue with their argument of keeping interest rates at the current levels for a longer period. Historically, this scenario bodes well for the US Dollar and bond yields, and makes Gold less attractive.
Gold price struggles for a firm footing near $2,300. The precious metal remains on tenterhooks after sliding to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $2,313. The yellow metal could fall to a three-week low near $2,265 amid multiple headwinds. A breakdown below the three-week low of $2,265 would expose the asset to March 21 high at $2,223.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60.00, suggesting that a bullish momentum has come to an end. However, the upside bias is intact until it sustains above 40.00.
Gold has played a key role in human's history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn't rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country's solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Created
: 2024.04.24
Last updated
: 2024.04.24
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