Created
: 2024.03.29
2024.03.29 21:01
The US Dollar (USD) never sleeps and that proverb certainly applies to this Friday. The Greenback holds onto recent gains on Good Friday, a bank holiday during which European and US trading desks will be running at minimum capacity. This could mean fireworks ahead as thin liquidity in market conditions will be met with pivotal economic data from the US.
That pivotal piece of data is the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge: The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE). There are chances for another red hot print after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data also beat expectations. Although he will not be bringing any Easter eggs, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak later this Friday and he may be bearing a surprise.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is making its way to a possible fresh high for March seeing its current positioning just below it at 104.72. The US Dollar bulls are clearly back in the game with a four-day winning streak for the Greenback. Although expectations around the PCE numbers are already in favor of an uptick, the magnitude of that uptick could fuel a substantial US Dollar rally amid exceptionally thin liquidity in markets.
That first pivotal level for the DXY at 104.60, where last week's rally peaked, has been broken. Further up, 104.96 remains the level to beat in order to tackle 105.00. Once above there, 105.12 is the last resistance point for now before the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will trade in overbought levels.
Support from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.75, the 100-day SMA at 103.48, and the 55-day SMA at 103.72 are unable to show their importance as support because traders didn't wait for a drop to those levels for a turnaround. The 103.00 big figure looks to remain unchallenged for longer, after the decline in the wake of the Fed meeting last week got turned around way before reaching it.
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Created
: 2024.03.29
Last updated
: 2024.03.29
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