Select Language

USD/CAD ticks up from 1.3690 with lower Oil prices hurting the loonie

Breaking news

USD/CAD ticks up from 1.3690 with lower Oil prices hurting the loonie

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.06.25 17:49
USD/CAD ticks up from 1.3690 with lower Oil prices hurting the loonie

update 2025.06.25 17:49

  • The Canadian Dollar trims gains, weighed by lower Oil prices.
  • The truce between Israel and Iran is keeping Crude prices 16% below Monday's highs.
  • Weak US data nd hopes of Fed easing are keeping USD's upside attempts limited.

The broad-based US Dollar's reversal following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East has been hollower against the Canadian Dollar, with downside attempts capped near 1.3700. The sharp decline in Oil prices is acting as a headwind for the commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar.

A moderate optimism keeps risk appetite alive on Wednesday, in the absence of key macroeconomic data, but the bearish pressure on the US Dollar seems to have eased. The USD7CAD is showing marginal gains on Wednesday, trimming losses after a 0.2% decline over the previous two days.

The CAD struggles amid low Oil prices

The Canadian Dollar has been hit by a 16% decline in the price of Oil, Canada's main import. The recent attacks on Iran seem to have spared the country's main Oil plants, keeping its supply capacity intact

Apart from that, the ceasefire seems to have moved away the threat of a blockade in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which was the main driver of Crude prices during the 12 days of hostilities. With a tense calm in the Middle East keeping Oil prices steady at $65, more or less where they were before the war, the Canadian Dollar is unlikely to rally.

In the US, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, maintained his cautious stance on his testimony to Congress, but he weak Consumer Confidence data seen and the growing divergence among the board members are keeping hopes of interest rate cuts alive. This is keeping the US Dollar's upside attempts limited.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.



Date

Created

 : 2025.06.25

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.25

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

USD/CAD edges higher ahead of Fed Powell's remarks

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is softening against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the currency pair attempts to break free from a consolidation phase.
New
update2025.06.25 22:48

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tests rising channel support, momentum indicators flash caution

Silver (XAG/USD) is showing muted price action on Wednesday, slipping modestly lower but staying within Tuesday's range. At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $35.75 during the American session, down roughly 0.46% on the day.
New
update2025.06.25 22:04

USD/INR firms near 86.00 as US Dollar stabilizes

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday, surrendering early gains as the Greenback steadies.
New
update2025.06.25 21:23

Gold holds steady as risk sentiment improves, Fed's Powell back in focus

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading within a tight range on Wednesday, as markets continue to show signs of optimism following Tuesday's ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
New
update2025.06.25 21:03

EUR/GBP flattens above 0.8500 while BoE's Bailey warns of UK labor market risks

The EUR/GBP pair trades flat around 0.8525 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The cross flattens as market experts reassess their expectations for the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary outlook for the remainder of the year amid growing concerns over United Kingdom's (UK) job market.
New
update2025.06.25 20:35

JPY soft as hawkish BoJ comms highlight importance of trade talks - Scotiabank

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies in relatively quiet trade overall, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.06.25 20:33

WTI Oil remains depressed below $65.00 on easing supply concerns

Crude Oil is consolidating losses on Wednesday, after having depreciated more than $10 from Monday's highs.
New
update2025.06.25 20:31

GBP trading in a tight range around 1.36 - Scotiabank

Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Wednesday's NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD), consolidating in a tight range around 1.36 and trading just below Tuesday's multiyear high that reached levels last seen in January 2022, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report
New
update2025.06.25 20:29

EUR consolidates around 1.16 - Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is quietly consolidating in a tight range around 1.16, trading just below Tuesday's fresh multi-year high that reached levels last seen in September 2021.
New
update2025.06.25 20:27

CAD little changed on the day - Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session. In line with expectations CPI data, reflecting a marginal easing in core pressures, does no move the needle for the BoC policy outlook in the short run, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New
update2025.06.25 20:25

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel