AUD/USD gains as market reacts to weak US data, global uncertainty

• The AUD/USD pair trades higher around 0.6400, up 0.26% on the day.
• US GDP data misses expectations, showing a contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025.
• Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June rise as weak data weighs on the USD.
• Investors remain cautious ahead of key US data releases, including NFPs and GDP for Q1 2025.
  

The AUD/USD pair saw a slight uptick as investors weighed weak United States (US) economic data, including a contraction in Q1 GDP. The market now expects potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which have pressured the US Dollar (USD). Despite ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty, the Australian Dollar (AUD) performed well, with the pair trading near the 0.6400 level. The next key focus will be the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls and GDP data later this week.

Daily digest market movers: Weak US GDP, tariff concerns persist

• The AUD/USD pair rises after testing resistance near 0.6417, buoyed by weaker-than-expected US GDP.
• President Donald Trump hints at trade talks with Canada, but uncertainty remains over US-China negotiations.
• China's weak manufacturing PMI adds to the risk-off sentiment, impacting commodity prices like copper.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers flat at 99.30, as traders await key economic data releases.
• Personal consumption data shows modest growth, but the overall economic outlook remains uncertain.
• The US labor market shows signs of slowdown, with ADP Employment data missing expectations.
• Traders are closely watching the PCE inflation data, with markets pricing in potential rate cuts.
• President Trump's comments on tariffs and trade policy keep investors on edge, impacting the USD.
• The DJIA drops 0.51% as the Q1 GDP contraction weighs on market sentiment.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious on inflation, with softer CPI data increasing rate cut expectations.
• Global uncertainty surrounding trade policies keeps market volatility elevated, particularly in the FX market.
  

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD maintains bullish outlook despite US Dollar weakness

The AUD/USD pair is showing a bullish signal, trading around 0.6400, up 0.26% on the day. The pair is currently positioned mid-range between 0.6356 and 0.6417. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 56.96, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a buy signal. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral at 0.0096. Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day SMA at 0.6391 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6281, support the bullish outlook. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6463 suggests a longer-term sell signal. Support levels are at 0.6391, 0.6377, and 0.6342, while resistance levels sit at 0.6409, 0.6411, and 0.6463.