NZD/USD Price Forecast: Could break below 50-day EMA toward 0.5700 support

• NZD/USD may face immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5737.
• The 14-day RSI has fallen below the 50 mark, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
• A drop below the 50-day EMA at 0.5718 could further erode medium-term strength.

The NZD/USD pair has retraced its recent gains from the previous session, hovering around 0.5710 during early European trading on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a bullish bias as the pair remains within an ascending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the 50 level, signaling a weakening bullish momentum.

Additionally, the NZD/USD pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting weakening short-term price momentum. However, with the nine-day EMA still positioned above the 50-day EMA, the broader bullish trend remains intact, indicating the potential for continued recovery.

On the upside, a decisive break above the nine-day EMA at 0.5737 could bolster short-term momentum, potentially pushing the NZD/USD pair toward its three-month high of 0.5832, last reached on March 18. Beyond this level, the next key resistance lies near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, around 0.5900.

A break below the 50-day EMA at 0.5718 could weaken medium-term momentum, intensifying downside pressure on the NZD/USD pair. This could lead to a test of the psychological support at 0.5700, with the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 0.5670 as the next key level. A breakdown below this channel would reinforce the bearish bias, potentially driving the pair toward the monthly low of 0.5593, recorded on March 3.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart