Created
: 2025.03.15
2025.03.15 03:30
The Mexican Peso (MXN) rallied against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, ignoring softer-than-expected economic data revealed during the week that suggests the economy might slow down. A deterioration of consumer sentiment in the United States (US) exerted pressure on the Greenback, which is poised to finish the week with losses. The USD/MXN trades at 19.86, down more than 1%.
The market mood turned buoyant, a tailwind for the emerging market currency. Dismal reports in Consumer Confidence and Industrial Production in Mexico paint a gloomy economic outlook, further confirmed by Banco de Mexico (Banxico) Director of Economic Research Alejandrina Salcedo Cisneros.
She commented that uncertainty is impacting the country's business, hinting at an outlook for a moderate expansion of regional economies. Banxico estimated economic contraction in all regions of the country. Nationwide, growth declined -0.6 % in Q4 compared to the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted figures.
In the US, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index registered a dismal print, while inflation expectations aimed higher due to US President Trump's tariffs.
Traders' eyes are on next week's Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision. Last Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that "market measures of inflation expectations have moved up, driven by tariffs."
Next week, traders will look at Retail Sales, housing data, the Fed's monetary policy decisions and economic projections.
The USD/MXN finally cleared the 20.00 figure, hitting a fourth-month low of 19.84 earlier during the North American session. Momentum favors further downside on the pair as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning bearish and closing into oversold territory. Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.
The USD/MXN first support would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.67. If surpassed, the next stop would be the 19.50 figure, ahead of the September 18 swing low of 19.06. For a bullish resumption, the pair's first ceiling level is 20.00. A decisive break will expose the 100-day SMA at 20.35.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country's central bank's policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring - or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries - is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico's central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Created
: 2025.03.15
Last updated
: 2025.03.15
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