China: Exports slowed more than expected in January-February - UOB Group

China's export growth slowed more than expected while import slumped in the first two months of the year as the first 10% of US tariffs kicked in from 4 February, UOB Group's Economist Ho Woei Chen reports. 

Further weakness expected in March as more tariffs kick in

"China's export growth slowed more than expected while import slumped in the first two months of the year as the first 10% of US tariffs kicked in from 4 February and China retaliated with 10%-15% tariffs on certain US energy goods, farm equipment, cars and trucks from 10 February." 

"Exports to key markets including ASEAN and US continued to grow but at a sharply slower pace compared to December. This might have been supported by further frontloading ahead of US tariffs starting on 4 February and 4 March. Thus, we expect more weakness in the trade numbers in Mar as we reached the tail end of frontloading activities until more tariffs are announced." 

"Although the announced additional tariff rates on Chinese goods are within our base case assumption, the developments remain fluid and unpredictable, and we can still expect many more iterations in the remaining of Trump's 4-year term. We currently factor in marginal growth of around 1.0% for both China's exports and imports in 2025."